• Raoul Pal is a macroeconomic investor who makes accurate predictions about the future.
• Pal currently claims that we are getting close to the liquidity cycle’s bottom, but not there yet.
• Pal conducts three analyses to determine when it is the right time to invest: change in interest rates, dollar change at a certain rate, and change in commodity prices at a certain rate.
Raoul Pal is an incredibly accurate macroeconomic investor who specializes in making forward-looking predictions. He is a former hedge fund manager and economic historian who is known for his wit, analogies, and historical allusions to simplify even the most complex financial concepts. His predictions are often so accurate that when he does get it wrong, the internet erupts in fury. However, when he is right, people are able to go about their lives with peace of mind.
Currently, Pal is claiming that we are getting closer to the liquidity cycle’s bottom, but we are not quite there yet. The liquidity cycle is a powerful tool that allows investors to determine when and what to invest in. This is because the money flow indicates which sectors are moving, and so the cycle can help decide when it is the right time to invest. For example, people tend to invest in commodities when inflation is high and the economy is uncertain, which explains why tech stocks and cryptocurrencies have recently had sell-offs. Pal believes that the cryptocurrency sell-offs are about to level out.
In order to come to this conclusion, Pal conducts three analyses. The first is to look at the change in interest rates throughout time. The second is to analyze how the dollar changes at a certain rate. The third is to evaluate how commodity prices change at a certain rate.
All in all, Pal is predicting that we are close to reaching the bottom of the liquidity cycle, but not there yet. He suggests that investors should wait a little while longer before taking the plunge and investing in cryptocurrency, stocks, and commodities. By looking at the change in interest rates, the dollar rate, and the commodity prices, Pal is able to make an educated guess as to when it is the right time to invest.